In the Money

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In the Money: Analysis of Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2

March 1st, 2013

A closer look at the 24 wagering options. The pool opens Friday at noon and closes Sunday at 6 p.m. ET.

1. Code West (20-1)

Pool 1 closing odds: 56-1

Derby points: 20

Lemon Drop Kid – Charitabledonation by Saint Ballado

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Record: 6 (1-3-2)

Dosage: 1.34

His biggest asset is consistency. He’s not been worse than third in six starts, and he’s adapted to various surfaces, which is a big plus. He moved up from allowance to graded stakes company – after shipping long-distance – and lost by just a nose. Pedigree leans turf but he’s performed very well on dirt, as have many from this Lemon Drop Kid crop. He looks to be the long-winded, sustained-run type who could handle the added distance. That’s a decent price for a Grade 2 runner-up trained by Baffert who’s proven on dirt and in routes.

2. Delhomme (50-1)

Pool 1 closing odds: 55-1

Derby points: 2

Dixie Union – Art Show by Out of Place

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Record: 3 (1-1-1)

Dosage: 1.80

Tough to gauge as he’s yet to start his 3-year-old campaign and likely won’t until the Rebel Stakes on March 16. So far he’s been a pacesetter who receded when challenged at 1 1/8-miles, and although he sports a low dosage, the pedigree doesn’t scream Derby. Pletcher includes him among his Triple Crown trail contenders, but we wouldn’t rank him above others who appear more promising. If you like him and think he’ll pull a Rebel upset, those are solid odds. Otherwise, he’ll be cramming for points to make the gate.

3. Den’s Legacy (50-1)

Pool 1 closing odds: 77-1

Medaglia d’Oro – Sunshine Song by War Chant

Derby points: 10

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Record: 10 (2-5-1)

Dosage: 1.57

He’s a colt who always seems to fill out the exotics, but can’t get to the winner’s circle. His wins were on turf and synthetic and although he’s performed well on dirt, is that really his preferred surface? He was routed by Flashback in the Robert B. Lewis and Goldencents had his number in the Sham, so there’s a class issue. Most importantly, he’ll be going into the Derby with more than 10 starts – a red flag for fatigue.

4. Dynamic Sky (50-1)

Pool 1 closing odds: 54-1

Derby points: 8

Sky Mesa – Murani by Distorted Humor

Trainer: Mark Casse

Record: 6 (2-2-1)

Dosage: 2.50

He’s multiple graded stakes-placed and looked great driving down the lane in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. He put in his best work yet with a sharp bullet on Feb. 23. Outstanding pedigree, multi-surface talent and only “off” race was Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He hasn’t faced the toughest rivals yet as a 3-year-old, but the price keeps going up on a live contender. If he pulls off a good performance against the talent, these kind of odds will be a distant memory.

5. Falling Sky (50-1)

Pool 1 closing odds: 99-1

Derby points: 10

Lion Heart – Sea Dragoness by Sea Hero

Trainer: John Terranova

Record: 4 (3-0-0)

Dosage: 1.40

A late scratch from the Fountain of Youth because of a wide post, he’ll head to the Tampa Bay Derby on March 9 instead, where he’ll test the heralded Verrazano. Front-running tactic in the Sam F. Davis led to him almost being caught by Dynamic Sky, but he rated well in his allowance win, coming from off the pace to beat Majestic Hussar. Even if he can’t top Verrazano, he’ll acquire points with a good performance.

6. Flashback (12-1)

Pool 1 closing odds: 12-1

Derby points: 10

Tapit – Rhumb Line by Mr. Greeley

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Record: 2 (2-0-0)

Dosage: 2.73

Is he the standout of the West Coast? The true test will come against Goldencents in the San Felipe on March 9, but all signs point to monster qualities. Main question is value, and with such a wide-open class this year, it’s likely he could go into the Derby in this odds range. An off race and he’ll be even higher.

7. Goldencents (20-1)

Pool 1 closing odds: 20-1

Derby points: 24

Into Mischief – Golden Works by Banker’s Gold

Trainer: Doug O’Neill

Record: 4 (3-1-0)

Dosage: 1.67

Don’t think lightning will strike twice? Bettors didn’t bite much in Pool 1 on this multiple graded stakes winner who’s not been worse than second. Lightly raced but well-traveled; he can adjust to surfaces and ships well. First real test will come in San Felipe. Generous odds considering his record. Possible hesitance due to the unknowns of a freshman sire.

8. Itsmyluckyday (12-1)

Pool 1 closing odds: 13-1

Derby points: 10

Lawyer Ron – Viva la Slew by Doneraile Court

Trainer: Eddie Plesa

Record: 9 (5-1-1)

Dosage: 3.00

The impressive Holy Bull winner will likely go into the Derby with 10 starts. He looks to be a Florida speed horse; talented, but Churchill Downs is a long way from Hallandale Beach.

9. Ive Struck a Nerve (30-1) (new)

Derby points: 51

Yankee Gentleman – Ranaway by Cryptoclearance

Trainer: Keith Desormeaux

Record: 9 (2-1-2)

Dosage: 3.67

Certainly a longshot in the Risen Star, but 135-1 was very high for his credentials against a group that included several maiden and allowance winners. He proved he belongs with the stakes company of this crop. When narrowing down, he doesn’t make the top 10, but he’s likely in the gate. With bettors considering him a fluke, you might get better odds day of show.

10. Normandy Invasion (15-1)

Pool 1 closing odds: 15-1

Derby points: 4

Tapit – Boston Lady by Boston Harbor

Trainer: Chad Brown

Record: 4 (1-1-0)

Dosage: 3.80

His troubled fifth as the favorite in the Risen Star was much better than it looked. He was finding his best stride late after a horrendous start in which he bumped with Oxbow. He’s likely to head home for the Wood Memorial, a race that could suit his late-closing running style. He’s a legitimate Derby contender at this stage, but he is in serious need of points with just four and only one more prep planned.

11. Orb (12-1) (new)

Malibu Moon – Lady Liberty by Unbridled

Derby points: 50

Trainer: Shug McGaughey

Record: 6 (3-0-1)

Dosage: 3.21

He’s the new colt on the block everyone’s talking about after his Fountain of Youth win. Powerful closer who appears to have improved on the gate issues that hampered him earlier in his career. Despite the higher dosage, he is a long-distance runner; the dam won at a mile and a half on turf and he’s already notched a win at 1 1/8. Many check marks in the “Derby qualifier” column, and it’s likely he’s already in the gate. Only drawback is his dependence on a pace scenario; note that in the two wins prior to the Fountain of Youth he broke last, and in the stakes race he was seventh of nine at the start. Is he versatile enough for the Derby?

12. Overanalyze (20-1)

Overanalyze

Overanalyze

Pool 1 closing odds: 33-1

Derby points: 10

Dixie Union – Unacloud by Unaccounted For

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Record: 5 (3-0-1)

Dosage: 3.00

Unlike many of others here, bettors will have a good gauge on this contender after Saturday’s Gotham Stakes, in which he drew the far outside post in a field of 12. He’s already won at 1 1/8 and showed grit in holding off Normandy Invasion, but that was last year. What’s he going to offer as a 3-year-old? The Gotham performance will, of course, have a major impact on his odds, but the Gotham field isn’t comparable to those of California or Florida.

13. Oxbow (30-1)

Pool 1 closing odds: 26-1

Derby points: 16

Awesome Again – Tiz Amazing by Cee’s Tizzy

Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas

Record: 7 (2-0-1)

Dosage: 2.50

A little air out of the balloon after he was overwhelmed in the final furlong of the Risen Star, but it was still a good performance. He was forced to navigate from a wide post and it was an educational rating experience. Fading at 1 1/16 is worrisome, however. If you like him and held out for this pool, you’re in luck.

14. Palace Malice (30-1) (new)

Curlin – Palace Rumor by Royal Anthem

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Record: 4 (1-2-1)

Dosage: 2.64

Very forward move in his first time stretching out beyond a mile, as not much separated the top three in the Risen Star. A slight bump with Ive Struck a Nerve seemed to jolt him a little heading to the wire, but he was striding out well after the finish. This is the first race in which he was forced to come from far back – he was eighth at first call, and he handled the challenge of a full field. An appealing prospect who appears to be on the improve.

15. Revolutionary (12-1)

Derby points: 10

Pool 1 closing odds: 13-1

War Pass – Runup the Colors by A.P. Indy

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Record: 5 (2-1-2)

Dosage: 3.00

He just recently returned to the work tab after his Withers victory, and his next start is undetermined. The Gotham could provide a good gauge as to the quality of the Withers, and also Transparent, whom he beat previously. Looks to be a legitimate contender; next start announcement is key as he’s sitting with just 10 points at this stage. Although he’s had issues with slow starts, he has proven versatile in his running style – that and the pedigree are his most appealing qualities.

16. Shakin it Up (15-1) (new)

Midnight Lute – Silver Bullet Moon by Vindication

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Record: 4 (2-2-1)

Dosage: 1.67

One of many intriguing Midnight Lute runners who’s been stymied by Super Ninety Nine, but otherwise he’s been consistent. He hasn’t won beyond seven furlongs, which is a worrisome factor at this stage, but he’s always running well late. There is debate about how far the Midnight Lute progeny will go; with the right influences on the dam side, In the Money projects they will continue to advance with distance. Another issue is his path; will he continue to battle this tough California contingent, or will he go elsewhere for much-needed points?

17. Shanghai Bobby (15-1)

Pool 1 closing odds: 14-1

Derby points: 24

Harlan’s Holiday – Steelin’ by Orientate

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Record: 6 (5-1-0)

Dosage: 3.80

Talented runner whose second-place showing in the Holy Bull was a strong performance. He continues to train well to the Florida Derby, but others have caught up to him. He also doesn’t boast a strong pedigree for the distance and is not a contender In the Money considers a top 10 qualifier. With others at the forefront at this stage, he’ll likely close at a good price if you like him.

18. Super Ninety Nine (10-1)

Pool 1 closing odds: 47-1

Derby points: 10

Pulpit – Exogenetic by Unbridled’s Song

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Record: 5 (3-1-0)

Dosage: 4.09

Those first-pool odds looking quite appealing now after his romp in the Southwest slop, and with many new backers, it’s unlikely he’ll be close to that number this time around. The off track did help his cause, but he’s no fluke. His record in California shows he’s beaten several quality runners and many next-out winners. There’s a good chance he’ll wait for the Arkansas Derby and be a solid candidate for the 100 points. The dosage is the highest of the group, but there’s solid stamina on the sire side.

19. Titletown Five (30-1) (new)

Tiznow – D’Wildcat Speed by Forest Wildcat

Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas

Record: 4 (1-1-1)

Dosage: 2.00

He’s ready to embark on his Derby path after time off because of a bone chip, and although his comeback race isn’t a graded prep, it’s a tough challenge with some strong rivals. This colt has been training great by all accounts at Oaklawn, but he has a long way to go to catch up with the rest. You’re looking at a maiden winner who hasn’t tried more than seven furlongs. His best asset is the classy company he battled as a 2-year-old.

20. Treasury Bill (30-1) (new)

Derby points: 0

Lemon Drop Kid – Wow Me Free by Menifee

Trainer: Ron Ellis

Record: 3 (1-1-1)

Dosage: 1.48

If you can designate a “wise guy” horse this early, he’s the one. A lot of buzz surrounds the San Vicente runner-up, who obviously needs more than seven furlongs. He certainly has the pedigree and the running style of a colt who wants to extend to long distances. Potential is there, but not much has been established yet – it’s all talk so far. The good news is, being owned by the Wests, he’s likely to steer clear of Flashback.

21. Uncaptured (30-1)

Uncaptured

Uncaptured

Pool 1 closing odds: 40-1

Derby points: 10

Lion Heart – Captivating by Arch

Trainer: Mark Casse

Record: 7 (6-0-0)

Dosage: 2.00

Generous odds for one of the most accomplished prospects in the wagering field. He’s proven at Churchill Downs, routes and in graded stakes company. Minor hoof issues delayed the start of his 3-year-old campaign, but he’s training aggressively with three works in a two-week span. He’s likely to take a synthetic path to the Derby, which In the Money views as a benefit (http://inthemoneypost.com/uncaptureds-synthetic-path-to-derby-could-be-genius/). He remains in the In the Money top 10, but even with his standout record, he can’t afford another hiccup with only 10 points earned.

22. Verrazano (10-1)

Pool 1 closing odds: 11-1

Derby points: 0

More Than Ready – Enchanted Rock by Giant’s Causeway

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Record: 2 (2-0-0)

Dosage: 2.06

Verrazano fans are in a holding pattern until the Tampa Bay Derby, although the unfortunate loss of Violence from the trail due to an injury could send more backers into his camp. So far, no marquee names have signed on to the March 9 race, so supporters of this allowance winner will be buying in now.

23. Vyjack (30-1)

Pool 1 closing odds: 49-1

Derby points: 0

Into Mischief – Life Happened by Stravinsky

Trainer: Rudy Rodriguez

Record: 3 (3-0-0)

Dosage: 1.80

Undefeated at Aqueduct, the Jerome champ will face some new competition in the Gotham. Winning would likely put him in the gate, but wouldn’t prove much except reaffirm what we already know: he has an affinity for the Big A. He has substantial stamina on the dam side, but can he ship? Could he handle a different surface?

24. All others (3-1)

Considering the many maiden an allowance winners who could still step up in March, this is a very appealing bet at 3-1, but what are the chances it will be that at closing time? We can only hope.

 

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